Using Hindsight in Medical Decision Making
Abstract
As the clinical picture of a patient evolves over time, more information
becomes available. Certain procedures require time to perform, causing
a delay between the time when the tests are ordered and when the results
are available. Furthermore, as the patient's condition changes over
time, serial measurements can be made. The availability of more data
allows a more accurate assessment of the patient. Uncertainties,
guesses or errors that were made early in the clinical course of patient
care can also be identified and resolved when more information is
available.
Reasoning with a stream of data that changes over time presents a
challenge to the designers of expert systems. The use of hindsight in
expert systems requires that appropriate attention be paid to the
temporal relations of the data and that care is exercised in revising
decisions. I present a data-dependency system, the Temporal Control
Structure (TCS), designed to support reasoning with data changing over
time and show how it can be used to implement reasoning by hindsight.
In Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine, 32:1, pp. 81-90,
May 1990.
The full paper is available in postscript. Get Postscript. (18pp)
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